This Time is Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly [Hardback]Eight Centuries of Financial Follyby Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
Usually ships within 2 to 4 working days Description of This Time is Different – Eight Centuries of Financial FollyThroughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different" - claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. This book proves that premise wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes - from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts - as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur. An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps. Title Information
Press and Industry Reviews"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."- Niall Ferguson, author of "The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World" "This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides." - Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits "You will be hard pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow." - Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide "This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. This one belongs on everyone's shelf." - Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945 Write a review of this book About Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth RogoffCarmen M. Reinhart is professor of economics at the University of Maryland. She recently coedited "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century" and is a regular lecturer at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.Kenneth S. Rogoff is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. He is the coauthor of "Foundations of International Macroeconomics", and a frequent commentator for NPR, the "Wall Street Journal", and the "Financial Times". Contents of This Time is Different – Eight Centuries of Financial FollyLIST OF TABLESLIST OF FIGURES LIST OF BOXES PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE PART I: Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1: Varieties of Crises and Their Dates Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default Other Key Concepts 2: Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default Debt Thresholds Measuring Vulnerability Clubs and Regions Reflections on Debt Intolerance 3: A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP Government Finances and National Accounts Public Debt and Its Composition Global Variables Country Coverage PART II: Sovereign External Debt Crises 4: A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises Sovereign Lending Illiquidity versus Insolvency Partial Default and Rescheduling Odious Debt Domestic Public Debt Conclusions 5: Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt Recurring Patterns Default and Banking Crises Default and Inflation Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default The Duration of Default Episodes 6: External Default through History The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture PART III: The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 7: The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default Domestic and External Debt Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition Episodes of Domestic Default Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 8: Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 9: Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues PART IV: Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 10: Banking Crises A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 11: Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" 12: Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes An Early History of Inflation Crises Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons Currency Crashes The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses Undoing Domestic Dollarization PART V: The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 13: The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies Summary 14: The Aftermath of Financial Crises Historical Episodes Revisited The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration The Fiscal Legacy of Crises Sovereign Risk Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s Concluding Remarks 15: The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? Concepts of Contagion Selected Earlier Episodes Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction Are More Spillovers Under Way? 16: Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index Defining a Global Financial Crisis The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype Summary PART VI: What Have We Learned? 17: Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature On Early Warnings of Crises The Role of International Institutions Graduation Some Observations on Policy Responses The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome DATA APPENDIXES A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series A.2. Public Debt A.3. Dates of Banking Crises A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises NOTES REFERENCES NAME INDEX SUBJECT INDEX |
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