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Description of Essential Decisions

Philosophy - Technical analysis is a visual discipline in which the chart signals must jump out of the screen at you so hard that you cannot ignore them. All the techniques in the book fit this dictum.

Focus - Is on entry and exit points and trend analysis applicable to all markets from forex to shares and commodities.

It is not a compendium of technical analysis but focuses on the essential tools and their interpretation for decision making.

Revision of The necessary basics of patterns, support, resistance, the basic

Candlestick charting, relative strength, Bollinger Bands and Elliott Wave are critically discussed as an introduction for beginners and a solid revision course for users of technical analysis.

Main Scope - Is an in-depth understanding and interpretation of oscillators and divergence applied to the commonly used MACD, RSI and Stochastic. It is claimed to have more in-depth data on oscillators and divergence than any other book or course on technical analysis.

Unique Aspects - The introduction of a new StochMACD oscillator as well as grouped oscillators combined with divergence and Bollinger Band penetration are serious new contributions to the understanding of trend turning point analysis. The table of JSE sector performance since 1977 is also new data as is the use of technical analysis to assess value and risk.

Conclusions - The book concludes with a list of entry and exit point signals based on the techniques discussed as well as a cryptic set of do's and don'ts in decision making.

Content - There are 300 charts, tables and diagrams all drawn and compiled by Dr. Clive Roffey based on his 40 years experience as an independent technical analyst.

Text Book - It is a substantial technical analytical work on decision making that has the potential to become a reference or text book on the use and application of oscillators to trend analysis.
What and When ... NOT Why?

This book is a distillation of Dr. Roffey's 40 years experience as a leading independent professional technical analyst, and the techniques he has developed that work in both bull and bear markets.

This book is for decision makers ... not procrastinators.

212 pages packed with 300 charts, diagrams and tables that focus on decision making, not words or complex analysis. Stock market signals must jump out at you so hard from the screen that you cannot ignore them.

Patterns and trends ... a revision of basic chart interpretation.

Chart patterns, support and resistance, Candlestick formats and trend recognition are essential revision.

Elliott Wave ... a new look at an old technique
Elliott Wave formats and the totally new concepts of the B wave split and group effect are discussed.

Oscillators ... are powerful tools. Why?
This is the ONLY book to provide a complete understanding of the popular RSI, MACD, Stochastic and Momentum as open or closed end oscillators in decision making. Oscillator time frames are critical.

Divergence ... is a potent trend change signal. Why?
Simple and compound divergences are discussed in more detail than any other course or published work on technical analysis. Dr. Clive Roffey is a world authority on oscillator divergence.

Reverse divergence ... a little used but essential technique.
The interaction of Reverse Divergence and Normal Divergence is detailed for a complete understanding of divergence action at market tops and bottoms. This is covered to a greater extent than any other book or course on technical analysis.

Relative strength ... the importance of strength charts and tables.
Relative strength is a key technique, even in short term trading. Why waste time doing serious analysis if the stock's relative strength is negative?

Oscillator grouping ... a unique new era concept.
Grouping isolates the points at which divergences signal a trend change. It is unique to this book. The combination of oscillator grouping and divergence propels technical analysis into a new era.

Bollinger Bands with oscillators ... for precise trend turning points.
Bollinger Bands applied to oscillators and combined with divergence and oscillator grouping adds an explosive new dimension to accurate trend turning point analysis.

Entry, Exit points and Timing ... for bull and bear markets.
Entry, exit points and timing of decisions are clearly defined for traders and investors. Construct a trading method that suits you and your time frame for shares, indexes, forex or commodities.

Title Information

ISBN:

9780620423526

Pages:

212 pages

Format:

Paperback

Product Code:

379877

Publisher:

Dr Clive Roffey

Published:

01/01/1970

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About

Dr. Clive Roffey has first class honours degrees in both Metallurgy and Mathematics in addition to his Ph.D. in Electrochemistry from the University of London. He also has a host of professional qualifications in marketing, engineering, corrosion as well as being a metallurgical expert on high alloy and precious metals. He is the doyen of technical analysis in South Africa having first started professional analysis in 1968, just as the huge bull run to the infamous 1969 market peak occurred. He is the longest standing independent professional technical analyst in South Africa and has remained an outspoken protagonist of charting techniques for the past 40 years.

As most of his analyses have been presented in the public domain, either in his daily newsletters, financial press or on radio and television, all his critiques of market performance can be verified. He has lectured extensively at numerous leading global and local investment conferences on analysis and holds master class courses on advanced technical analysis in addition to his popular internet analysis course at www.charts.co.za

Dr. Roffey is an executive member of the Technical Analytical Society of Southern Africa, and consults to both institutional and private clients as well as producing his numerous newsletters. He has for the past ten years delivered a blunt, no nonsense weekly analysis on his 'Roffey Review' programme on Summit TV and has been a pithy columnist for numerous financial magazines and a succinct commentator on Radio 702, Classic FM Business and SABC TV. His analysis of the grain markets is a regular feature on the early morning agricultural programmes on SABC 2. He is the only analyst in South Africa to have two papers published in the prestigious 'Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities' in the US as well as an article for the UK 'Technical Analyst' on chart patterns.

Dr. Roffey's track record over the past 40 years is phenomenal. He called the crashes of 1969, 1987, 1999, 2002 and 2008 before they occurred. He called the bottom in the platinum and resources market as well as the 1998 low in the property trust market. His most infamous call on radio was to sell the market darling Didata at R65 and stated that he would buy it back at R25 within 18 months. He was viciously attacked for this analysis but had the last laugh as it fell to R25 in nine months and ultimately lost 95% of its value. He also called the top of the gold market in 1980 and again in 2002. More recently in 2007 he publicly called the top on the Dow and the demise of the banks. His future analysis indicates a fall on the Dow to under 6,000 from its current level. No other analyst in South Africa has such an exceptional track record of analyzing major market turns before they happened.

This is his first book and it is a distillation of his 40 years experience of bull and bear markets and wealth of accumulated knowledge. He has been a major protagonist of technical analysis and leader in bringing it to the fore as an accepted form of professional stock market analysis in South Africa. This book is written in the same blunt style as his radio and TV analysis. Many of the new concepts detailed in the book are the result of the unique research carried out by Dr. Roffey. Several of the techniques discussed will take the understanding and application of chart analysis to new high levels. It is destined to become a reference work for technical analysis and introduces many new concepts that have not been previously published.

Dr. Clive Roffey's first book is a distillation of his 40 years experience of bull and bear markets and wealth of accumulated knowledge. He has been a major protagonist of technical analysis and leader in bringing it to the fore as an accepted form of professional stock market analysis in South Africa. This book is written in the same blunt style as his radio and TV analyses. Many of the new concepts detailed in the book are the result of the unique research carried out by Dr. Roffey. Several of the techniques discussed will take the understanding and application of chart analysis to new high levels. It is destined to become a reference work for technical analysis and introduces many new concepts that have not been previously published.

Contents of Essential Decisions

Introduction - Action not Analysis
Decision Making, Visual Analysis, Value Assessment, Technical Analysis, Probabilities, Pattern Recognition
Book Format, Contrarianism, Controversialist

I Market Timing and Forecasting
Dictating the Market, The "Why" Syndrome, Market Forecasting
Market Timing, Forecast or Follow? Trend Probabilities
Portfolio Management

II The Essential Basics
Trends, Support and Resistance, Candlestick Charting
Essential Patterns, Volume

III Comparative Relative Strength
Tops Down or Bottoms Up? Relative Strength Display
JSE Relative Strength Comparisons, Global Markets,

IV Comparative Relative Strength Tables
Table Construction, Table Analysis, Unit Trust Portfolio Tables
Global investment tables, JSE sector performance since 1997

V Elliott Wave Essentials
Basic Wave Format, Corrective Waves and Sub Waves,
The B Wave Split, Weak Corrections, Trend lines in Elliott
Rule of Alternation, Triangles in Elliott, Elliott and Civilization

VI Fibonacci Series
Golden Ratio, Elliott and Fibonacci, Dow and JSE with Fibonacci

VII Indicators or Oscillators
Indicators, Oscillators, Fallacies About Oscillators

VIII Oscillator Basics
Are all Oscillators Momentum Oscillators? Oscillator components
Frequency of Stock Market Moves, Open or Closed End Oscillators
Characteristics of Open and Closed End Oscillators

IX Trends and Patterns on Oscillators
Trends, Support, Resistance and Patterns on Oscillators

X Classic Divergence
Simple and Compound Divergences
Divergence on the RSI / MACD/ Stochastic / Momentum
Questions About Divergence

XI Reverse Divergence
Reverse Divergence vs Normal Divergence
Reverse Divergence and Trend Analysis, Target Counts,
Oscillator Signals, Reverse Divergence and Failures

XII Oscillators and Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands introduction, Narrowing
Oscillators Above or Below their Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands and Reverse Divergence, with Multiple Oscillators

XIII Comparative Relative Strength and Oscillators
Oscillators Applied to Comparative Relative Strength

XIV Oscillator Grouping
Oscillator Time Frames, Stochastic Grouping
Grouping and Normal Divergence , and Reverse Divergence
Grouping and Intra-day Trading

XV The Fantastic Stochastic
Applied Stochastics and the Grouping Effect
Stochastics and RSI Combo
Stochasticized RSI, Stochasticized MACD and Stochastic
Relative Momentum Index (RMI)

XVI The One and Only Golden Rule
The One and Only Golden Rule of Technical Analysis
Financial Planners and Institutional Fund Managers
Chart Displays, Penny Stocks, Decision Making Guidelines

XVII Entry and Exit Points
Entry points ... Upside Breakouts, the Lower Bollinger Band
Bollinger Bands plus Buy Divergence
Grouped Oscillators at a Buy Divergence
Reverse Divergence Buy at a Correction in Bull Trend
Exit Points ... Downside Breakouts, the Upper Bollinger Band
Oscillators above the Bollinger plus Sell Divergence
Grouped Oscillators at a Sell Divergence
Reverse Divergence Sell at a Rally in Bear Trend
NEVER ... NEVER buy when ... NEVER sell when...
The WAITING Game

XVIII Algorithms
Introduction, Algorithm Basics
Stochasticizing Oscillators Formulae
Stochasticized MACD, RSI, Momentum and Moving Averages
Volume Formulae
Algorithm Scan Formulae
Scans for Normal and Reverse Divergence
Scans for RSI Penetration of the Bollinger Bands
Scans for Oscillator and Stochastic Grouping
Scans for StochMACD and StochRSI Grouping
Scans for Oscillators in the Same Time Frame
Scan Conclusions

XIX Current Analyses September 2008
Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly
Gold Price
JSE Banks Relative Strength
JSE Banks Index Weekly
JSE Banks PE Ratios
JSE Gold Index