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- Product code: 3696
- ISBN: 0471168130,
ISBN13: 9780471168133,
224 pages, hardback
Published by John Wiley & Sons on 1997
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Description of Gaming The Market |
Gaming the Market is the first book to show investors how game theory is applicable to decisions about buying and selling stocks, bonds, mutual funds, futures, and options. As a practical trading guide, Gaming the Market will help investors master this revolutionary approach, and employ it to their advantage.
Although game theory has been studied since the 1940s, it has only recently been applied to the world of finance. Game theory champions garnered the 1994 Nobel Prize in economics and, today, this theory is used to analyze everything from the baseball strike to FCC auctions. Increasingly, game theory is making its mark as a potent tool for traders. In Gaming the Market, economist Ronald Shelton provides a model that enables traders to predict profitability and, as a result, makes effective buy and sell decisions.
Stated simply, game theory is the study of conflict based on a formal approach to decision making that views decisions as choices made in a game. Whether playing individually or in a group, each player in a conflict has more than one course of action available to him, and the outcome of the 'game' depends on the interaction of the strategies pursued by each. Shelton offers real-world examples that reveal how the principles of game theory drive financial markets - and how these same principles can be used to develop winning investment strategies.
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Reviews"Ronald Shelton has extended the field of excursion analysis with an innovative and provocative book that is sure to be widely - and controversial. By examining the actual distributions of price excursion, he shows a technique to estimate your odds going in on a new position, and within the context of game theory, how to evaluate those chances. All traders and analysts seeking objective bases for trading will want to read this book."
- John Sweeney, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine
"It's not often that a refreshingly new idea appears in the field of trading strategies or risk management, but Ronald Shelton has taken pieces from game theory and betting strategies and transformed them into a new, visual way to make trading decisions. He has been able to put a value on trading situations which can increase your ability to manage risk as well as clarify expectations - both essential ingredients for success."
- Perry Kaufman
| Contents of Gaming The Market |
1. What is Game Theory?
Basic Game Theory Terms and Ideas
The Decision-Making Problem
What is a Game?
A Simple Game
The Prisoner's Dilemna
Iterated Games
Zero Sum Game
Games against Nature
Pros and Cons of Game Theory
2. Basic Ideas About Financial Markets
3. The Interaction between Price Fluctuations and Risk
Acceptance Levels
Realistic Scenarios
Financial Markets as a Parlor Game
4. Constructing a Game Theoretic Model
Market-Strategy Notation
Speculator-Strategy Notation
Payoff Notation
Mathematical Representation of the Game Table
When to Accept Less Risk
When to Accept More Risk
Separation of Less Risk and More Risk
The Completed Model
5. Understanding the Model
6. Treasury Bond Futures
Appendix A: Mathematical Representation of the Model
Appendix B: Frequency Distribution for Expiring Month T-Bond Futures Prices
Appendix C: Relative Frequency Distribution for Expiring Month T-Bond Futures Prices
Appendix D: Quick Basic Program for Relative Frequencies
Appendix E: Relative Frequencies by Oscillator Conditions
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