The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable [Paperback]by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Description of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableNow available in paperback.
"Mindblowing...a masterpiece" - Chris Anderson, author of 'The Long Tail'
"A deeply intelligent, provocative book" - The Economist
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know, and shows us how to face the world.
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About Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.