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Description of Plight of the Fortune Tellers |
Todays top financial-risk professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading - and it puts us all at risk. This is the case that Riccardo Rebonato makes in Plight of the Fortune Tellers - and coming from someone who is both an experienced market professional and an academic, this heresy is worth listening to.
Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning, and he shows us how to do it using probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory. This is the only way to effectively manage financial risk in a manner congruent with how human beings actually react to chance. Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about probability in financial-risk management. Risk managers have become obsessed with measuring risk and believe that these quantitative results by themselves can guide sound financial choices - they cant.
In this book, Rebonato offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution, one that seeks to remind us that managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is not only a book for the decision makers of Wall Street, its a must-read for anyone concerned about how todays financial markets are run. The stakes have never been higher - can you risk it?
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Contents of Plight of the Fortune Tellers |
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1: Why This Book Matters
Chapter 2: Thinking about Risk
Chapter 3: Thinking about Probabilities
Chapter 4: Making Choices
Chapter 5: What Is Risk Management For?
Chapter 6: VaR & Co: How It All Started
Chapter 7: Looking Beneath the Surface: Hidden Problems
Chapter 8: Which Type of Probability Matters in Risk Management?
Chapter 9: The Promise of Economic Capital
Chapter 10: What CanWe Do Instead?
Endnotes
Index
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About Riccardo Rebonato |
Riccardo Rebonato is global head of market risk and global head of quantitative research and quantitative analysis at the Royal Bank of Scotland; he is visiting lecturer in mathematical finance at the University of Oxford and adjunct professor at the Tanaka Business School, Imperial College London. His books include ''Volatility and Correlation: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox'' and ''Modern Pricing of Interest-Rate Derivatives: The LIBOR Market Model and Beyond'' (Princeton).
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