Book Categories

Description of Fooled by Randomness

This book is a synthesis of, on one hand, the no-nonsense mathematical trader (self-styled 'practitioner of uncertainty') who spent his life trying to resist being fooled by randomness and trick the emotions associated with uncertainty and, on the other, the aesthetically obsessed, literature-loving human being willing to be fooled by any form of nonsense that is polished, refined, original, and tasteful.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling and explaining three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern world.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. In addition we meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his trading life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed - the lucky fool in the right place at the right time. The embodiment of the 'Survival of the Least Fit.' Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. A monkey banging on a keyboard may eventually produce the Iliad, but would you sign him to write the sequel?

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan form the genuine visionary?

Must we always try to uncover non-existent messages in random events?

It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Title Information

ISBN:

9781587991905

Pages:

256 pages

Format:

Hardback

Product Code:

22346

Publisher:

Texere

Published:

16/04/2004

Edition:

2nd Edition

Press and Industry Reviews

'I really like this book. We need a book like this, that helps us deal with our hard-wired human tendency to underestimate randomness. It is fun to read, refreshingly independently-minded and at the same time playful.'
- Robert J. Shiller, Yale University, author of Irrational Exurberance

Write a review of this book

Customer Reviews from Amazon

Contents of Fooled by Randomness

PART I: Solon's Warning - Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction

1. If You're So Rich Why Aren't You So Smart?
2. A Bizarre Accounting Method
3. A Mathematical Meditation on History
4. Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual
5. Survival of the Least Fit - Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness?
6. Skewness and Asymmetry
7. The Problem of Induction

PART II: Monkeys on Typewriters - Survivorships and Other Biases

8. Too Many Millionaires Next Door
9. It Is Easier to Buy and Sell Than Fry and Egg
10. Loser Takes All - On the Nonlinearities of Life
11. Randomness and Our Brain: We Are Probability Blind


PART III: Wax in my Ears - Living with Randomitis

12. Gamblers' Ticks and Pigeons in a Box
13. Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability and Skepticism
14. Bacchus Abandons Antony

Epilogue: Solon Told You So