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- Product code: 21956
- ISBN: 047173876X,
ISBN13: 9780471738763,
432 pages, hardback
Published by John Wiley & Sons, 1st edition, 2005
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Description of Twilight in the Desert |
The most critical question facing the world energy market is whether Saudi Arabia can substantially increase its oil production to meet rising world demand in the years ahead. Sparked by personal observations of Saudi oil wells which led him to suspect that some Saudi fields were in decline, Matt Simmons has created a compelling case that Saudi Arabia production will soon reach an apex, after which its production will decline and the world will be confronted with an immense and potentially catastrophic oil shortage. The factual basis of the book is over 200 technical papers published over the last 20 years which individually detail problems with particular wells or particular fields, but which collectively demonstrate that the entire Saudi oil system is “old and fraying.” Based on his analysis, Mr. Simmons asserts that sudden and sharp oil production declines could happen at any time. Even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current rates of production for several years, but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in world demand. Eventually, the reckoning day will come and the world economy will be confronted with a major shock that will stunt economic growth, increase inflation, and potentially destabilize the Middle East.
The book is written in a concise and engaging style, providing background on Saudi Arabia, the oil industry, world oil market, and the management of the Saudi oil resources. Mr. Simmons addresses technical issues about oil production in a clear, interesting style, providing documentation but not losing the reader in details The book is written with a strong focus and passion, and the overall sense is of a behind-the-scenes expose, akin to a 60 minutes investigative piece.
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Contents of Twilight in the Desert |
Dedication
Acknowledgements
Preface
PART I: FROM BEDOUIN TO BOURGEOISIE
1. The Birth of a Nation: A Century of Extraordinary Change and Economic Challenges
2. The History of Major Saudi Arabian Oil Discoveries
3. Saudi Arabia's Road To Oil Market Dominance
4. The Veil of Secrecy Over Saudi Oil Reserves & Production
PART II: THE END OF THE SAUDI OIL BOUNTY
5. Saudi Aramco: A Company that Produces More Oil than Any Country
6. Oil Is Not Just Another Commodity: A Primer on the Science of Producing Oil and Gas
PART III: A FIELD-BY-FIELD ASSESSMENT OF 12 SAUDI OILFIELDS
7. Giants At The Tipping Point - An Assessment of 12 Saudi Oilfields
8. The Second-Tier Oilfields: Abqaiq, Safaniya, and Berri
9. The Best of the Rest: The Lower-Production Oilfields
10. Coming Up Empty in New Exploration
11. Turning to Natural Gas
PART IV: TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT
12. Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt
13. Facing the Inevitable: The Dimming Future of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Industry
14. Reading Between the Lines of the Latest News from Saudi Aramco: All Is Not Well in the Oilfields of Saudi Arabia
15. Entering the Realm of "Fuzzy Logic" to Manage the Future of Saudi Oil
16. Conclusion: In Search of Crisper Answers to Saudi Arabia's Confident Claims
Aftermath
Appendix A: Methodology: Obtaining Accurate and Reliable Information on Saudi Oil Fields from the Society of Petroleum Engineers
Appendix B: Technical Graphs and Tables
Appendix C: Recently released 1974 U.S. Senate hearings
Endnotes: Sources
Bibliographical References
Index
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About Matthew R. Simmons |
Matthew R. Simmons is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based investment bank that specializes in the energy industry. Mr. Simmons serves on the boards of Brown-Forman Corporation and The Atlantic Council of the United States. He is also a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. He has an MBA from Harvard University.
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