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Credit Derivatives: Risk Management, Trading and Investing by Geoff Chaplin
  • Credit Derivatives: Risk Management, Trading and Investing

  • by Geoff Chaplin
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    • Product code: 21048
    • ISBN: 047002416x, ISBN13: 9780470024164, 256 pages, hardback
      Published by John Wiley & Sons, 1st edition, 2005
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    Description of Credit Derivatives: Risk Management, Trading and Investing

    Theory, models, and implementation for all major credit derivatives

    Credit Derivatives provides a comprehensive account of the theory, modeling, and implementation of these popular hedging instruments while, at the same time, identifies model shortcomings and hidden risks. It introduces-and goes beyond-mathematical models to explore all aspects of credit derivative products.

    Contents of Credit Derivatives: Risk Management, Trading and Investing

    Preface
    Acknowledgements
    Disclaimer and Software Instructions
    Table of Spreadsheet Examples and Software


    PART I. CREDIT BACKGROUND AND CREDIT DERIVATIVES

    1. Credit Debt and Other Traditional Credit Instruments
    1.1 Bonds and loans; LIBOR rates and swaps; 'repo' and general collateral rates
    1.1.1 Bonds and loans
    1.1.2 BBA LIBOR and swaps
    1.1.3 Collateralised lending and repo
    1.1.4 Repo as a credit derivative
    1.2 Credit debt versus 'risk-free' debt
    1.3 Issue documents, seniority and the recovery process
    1.3.1 Issue documents and default
    1.3.2 Claim amount
    1.3.3 The recovery process and recovery amount
    1.3.4 Sovereign versus corporate debt
    1.4 Valuation, yield and spread
    1.5 Buying risk
    1.6 Marking to market, marking to model and reserves

    2. Default and Recovery Data; Transition Matrices; Historical Pricing
    2.1 Recovery: ultimate and market value based recovery
    2.1.1 Ultimate recovery
    2.1.2 Market recovery
    2.1.3 Recovery rates and industry sector
    2.1.4 Recovery and default rates and the economic cycle
    2.1.5 Modelling recovery rates
    2.2 Default rates: rating and other factors
    2.3 Transition matrices
    2.4 Measures' and transition matrix-based pricing
    2.5 Spread jumps and spread volatility derived from transition matrices
    2.6 Adjusting transition matrices

    3. Asset Swaps and Asset Swap Spread; z-Spread
    3.1 'Par-par' asset swap contracts
    3.1.1 Contract description and hedging
    3.1.2 Hedging
    3.1.3 Default of the reference name
    3.2 Asset swap spread
    3.3 Maturity and z-spread
    3.4 Callable asset swaps; 'perfect' asset swaps
    3.4.1 Callable asset swaps
    3.4.2 'Perfect' asset swaps
    3.5 A bond spread model

    4. Liquidity, the Credit Pyramid and Market Data
    4.1 Bond liquidity
    4.2 The Credit Pyramid
    4.3 Survey and engineered spread data
    4.3.1 Survey data
    4.3.2 Engineered data
    4.4 Spread and rating

    5. Traditional Counterparty Risk Management
    5.1 Vetting
    5.2 Collateralisation and netting
    5.3 Additional counterparty requirements for credit derivative counterparties
    5.4 Internal capital charge

    6. Credit Portfolios and Portfolio Risk
    6.1 VaR and counterpartyVaR
    6.2 Distribution of forward values of a credit bond
    6.3 Correlation and the multi-factor Normal (Gaussian) distribution
    6.4 Correlation and the correlation matrix

    7. Introduction to Credit Derivatives
    7.1 Products and users
    7.1.1 'Traditional' credit instruments
    7.1.2 'Single name' credit derivatives
    7.1.3 Credit-linked notes
    7.1.4 Portfolio credit derivatives
    7.2 Market participants and market growth


    PART II. CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS AND OTHER SINGLE NAME PRODUCTS

    8. Credit Default Swaps; Product Description and Simple Applications
    8.1 CDS product definition
    8.1.1 Contract description and example
    8.1.2 Market CDS quotes
    8.1.3 Related products
    8.2 Documentation
    8.2.1 ISDA documentation and insurance contract differences
    8.2.2 Reference obligations and 'Mark-it RED'
    8.3 Credit triggers for credit derivatives
    8.3.1 Credit events
    8.3.2 Restructuring
    8.4 CDS Applications and elementary strategies
    8.4.1 Single names
    8.4.2 Sector/portfolio trades
    8.4.3 Income generation
    8.4.4 Regulatory capital reduction
    8.5 Counterparty risk: PFE for CDS
    8.6 CDS trading desk
    8.6.1 Mechanics of transacting a CDS deal
    8.6.2 Trade monitoring, credit events, unwinds
    8.6.3 CDS desk interactions and organisation
    Addendum: ISDA 2003 CDS confirmation

    9. Valuation and Risk: Basic Concepts and the Default and Recovery Model
    9.1 The fundamental credit arbitrage: repo cost
    9.2 Default and recovery model; claim amount
    9.2.1 Claim amount
    9.2.2 Recovery modelling
    9.2.3 Hazard (default) rate model
    9.2.4 Choice of hazard rate function/interpolation process
    9.3 Deterministic default rate model
    9.3.1 CDS valuation
    9.3.2 Accrued interest and the delivery option
    9.3.3 CDS under constant hazard rate
    9.3.4 Bond valuation
    9.3.5 Bond price under a constant hazard rate
    9.3.6 Limiting cases of the bond price
    9.3.7 Risky zero coupon bonds
    9.3.8 CDS and bond sensitivities
    9.4 Stochastic default rate model; hazard and pseudo-hazard rates
    9.5 Calibration to market data
    9.5.1 Calibrating to CDS and to bonds
    9.5.2 Implied hazard rates
    9.5.3 Calibrating to bonds: multiple solutions for the hazard rate
    9.5.4 Calibrating to bonds: implied recovery and hazard rates
    9.5.5 Implied hazard rate curve and no-arbitrage
    9.6 CDS data/sources
    9.6.1 Survey data
    9.6.2 Data engineering
    9.7 Model errors and tests
    9.7.1 Recovery assumption
    9.7.2 Interest and hazard rate correlation
    9.7.3 Reference name and counterparty hazard rate correlation
    9.7.4 Interpolation assumptions, and the pseudo-hazard rate versus stochastic hazard rate
    9.8 CDS risk factors; reserves and model risk
    9.8.1 Captured and hidden risks
    9.8.2 Limits
    9.8.3 Reserves against implementation errors
    9.8.4 Model reserves

    10. CDS Deal Examples
    10.1 A CDS hedged against another CDS
    10.1.1 Cross-currency default swap pricing and hedging
    10.1.2 Back-to-back trades, default event hedges and curve trades
    10.1.3 Hedging both credit event and spread risk simultaneously
    10.1.4 Seniority mismatch
    10.1.5 Trade level hedging and book basis hedging
    10.2 Introduction to bond hedging
    10.2.1 Default event hedging
    10.2.2 Spread hedging
    10.2.3 Convertible bonds and equity risk
    10.3 Hedge and credit event examples

    11. CDS/Bond Basis Trading
    11.1 Bond versus CDS: liquidity
    11.2 Bond repo cost
    11.3 Bond spread measurement: z-spread not asset swap spread
    11.4 Bond price impact
    11.5 Embedded options in bonds
    11.6 Delivery option in CDS
    11.7 Payoff of par
    11.8 Trigger event differences
    11.9 Embedded repo option
    11.10 Putting it all together

    12. Forward CDS; Back-to-Back CDS, Mark-to-Market and CDS Unwind
    12.1 Forward CDS
    12.2 Mark-to-market and back-to-back CDS
    12.3 Unwind calculation; off-market trade valuation and hedging
    12.4 'Double-trigger CDS'

    13. Credit-Linked Notes
    13.1 CLN set-up; counterparty or collateral risk
    13.2 Embedded swaps and options
    13.3 Costs
    13.4 Applications
    13.5 CLN pricing
    13.5.1 Basic pricing
    13.5.2 CLN pricing model
    13.6 Capital guaranteed note

    14. Digital or 'Fixed Recovery' CDS
    14.1 Product description
    14.2 Pricing, hedging, valuation and risk calculations
    14.2.1 Simple pricing
    14.2.2 Recovery assumptions
    14.2.3 Valuation and hedging
    14.3 Trigger event differences

    15. Spread Options, Callable/Puttable Bonds, Callable Asset Swaps, Callable Default Swaps
    15.1 Product definitions
    15.1.1 Vanilla spread options and variations
    15.1.2 Related embedded products
    15.1.3 Bond price options
    15.1.4 Applications
    15.2 Model alternatives and a stochastic default rate model for spread option pricing
    15.2.1 Model approaches
    15.2.2 Hazard rate tree
    15.2.3 Callable high-yield bonds
    15.3 Sensitivities and hedging

    16. Total Return Swaps
    16.1 Product definition and examples
    16.2 Applications
    16.3 Hedging and valuation
    16.3.1 Pricing and hedging
    16.3.2 Valuation

    17. Single Name Book Management
    17.1 Risk aggregation
    17.2 CreditVaR for CDS

    18. CDS and Simulation
    18.1 The Poisson model and default times
    18.2 Valuation by Monte Carlo simulation
    18.2 Sensitivity


    PART III. PORTFOLIO PRODUCTS

    19. Nth-to-Default Baskets
    19.1 Product definition and features
    19.1.1 First-to-default product definition and example
    19.1.2 Documentation and takeovers
    19.1.3 Second (and higher)-to-default
    19.2 Applications
    19.2.1 Correlation trading
    19.2.2 Mergers
    19.2.3 Standard baskets
    19.3 Pricing: zero and 100% correlation
    19.3.1 Zero correlation case: exact pricing from the CDS model
    19.3.2 100% correlation: exact pricing

    20. Collateralised Debt Obligations
    20.1 Static synthetic CDO
    20.1.1 Product definition
    20.1.2 Premium waterfall
    20.1.3 Documentation; CDO set-up
    20.1.4 CDO tranches; funded and unfunded tranches; 'buying' and 'selling'
    20.1.5 Relationship to nth-to-default
    20.1.6 Arbitrage CDOs
    20.2 Index portfolios and Standard CDO structures
    20.2.1 Background and terminology
    20.2.2 Composition of the indices
    20.2.3 Single tranche [0%, 100%] CDO products
    20.2.4 Standard tranched CDO structures: iTraxx and CDX
    20.2.5 Index options and modelling spread
    20.3 CDO terminology and variations
    20.3.1 OC and IC tests; WARF; diversity score
    20.3.2 Cash and cashflow CDOs
    20.3.3 Cashflow waterfall
    20.3.4 Managed CDOs
    20.3.5 High-grade and high-yield CDOs
    20.3.6 Reference assets
    20.4 Tranche ratings and BET
    20.5 SPVs and CDOs
    20.6 Applications
    20.6.1 Balance sheet CDOs
    20.6.2 Diversification and risk reduction trades; a 'credit bank'

    21. Valuation and Hedging
    21.1 Default time correlation
    21.1.1 Generating correlated default times
    21.1.2 Intuitive understanding of default time correlation
    21.1.3 Spread implications of 100% default time correlation
    21.2 The Normal Copula
    21.3 Portfolio product pricing under Monte Carlo simulation
    21.3.1 N2D baskets
    21.3.2 CDO tranches
    21.3.3 The number of simulations
    21.3.4 Variance reduction techniques
    21.3.5 Complex CDO structures
    21.3.6 Summary of the Normal Copula default time simulation and valuation process
    21.4 Valuation examples
    21.4.1 F2D baskets
    21.4.2 CDO pricing: change of correlation
    21.4.3 CDO pricing: change of tranching
    21.4.4 CDO pricing: change of underlying
    21.4.5 CDO pricing: change of maturity
    21.5 Sensitivity calculation and hedging
    21.5.1 Dynamic hedging: spread risk
    21.5.2 Static hedging: default event risk
    21.5.3 Correlation risk
    21.5.4 Recovery risk
    21.5.5 Convexity risks
    21.6 Model errors and tests; alternative models
    21.6.1 Captured and hidden risks
    21.6.2 Spread models
    21.6.3 Reserves

    22. The Correlation Matrix
    22.1 Constraints: what makes a correlation matrix?
    22.2 Implied correlation
    22.2.1 Index CDO deals and implied correlation
    22.2.2 Base correlation
    22.2.3 Interpolating correlation
    22.2.4 Portfolio differences
    22.3 Tag correlation and semi-closed form pricing
    22.4 Spread correlation
    22.5 Asset and equity correlation
    22.6 Calculation techniques
    22.6.1 Pairwise estimation from historical data
    22.6.2 Factor analysis and correlation
    22.6.3 Impact on hedging of using historical or implied correlations

    23. Other Copulae
    23.1 Student's t distribution
    23.2 Copulae in general
    23.3 Archimedean Copulae: Clayton and Gumbel
    23.4 Clayton at θ =0 and ? θ =
    23.5 Model risk

    Addendum

    24. Correlation Portfolio Management
    24.1 Static and dynamic hedges
    24.2 Correlation book management
    24.3 CreditVaR and CounterpartyVaR


    PART IV. DEFAULT SWAPS INCLUDING COUNTERPARTY RISK

    25. 'Single Name' CDS
    25.1 Non-correlated counterparty
    25.2 100% correlation
    25.3 Correlated counterparty: pricing and hedging
    25.4 Choice of Copula
    25.5 Collateralised deals and CDS book management

    26. Counterparty CDS
    26.1 Pricing
    26.2 Counterparty CDS (CCDS) book management

    27. The Future for Credit Derivatives
    27.1 Development processes
    27.2 Conclusion

    Appendix: iTraxx Indices
    References
    Index

    About Geoff Chaplin

    GEOFF CHAPLIN studied mathematics at Cambridge (MA 1972) and Oxford (MSc 1973, DPhil 1975) and qualified as an actuary (FFA 1978) while working in a life insurance company. He moved to the City in 1980 and has worked for major banks (including HSBC, Nomura International, and ABN AMRO) as well as consulting to hedge funds, corporate treasurers, and institutional investment funds. He has been involved in the credit derivatives market since 1996 and has both traded portfolio products and developed risk management systems for these products.

    In addition to consulting and training for the major financial institutions, Geoff has maintained strong academic interests and was a visiting (emeritus) professor at the University of Waterloo (Canada) from 1987 until 1999.

    He has also published many articles (in Risk, the Journal of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, and others) and speaks regularly at conferences on credit derivatives.

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