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- Product code: 16094
- ISBN: 0932750559,
ISBN13: 9780932750556,
190 pages, hardback
Published by New Classics Library, 1st edition, 2003
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Description of View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle |
New Classics Library’s first book on the market was Elliott Wave Principle, in 1978. It challenged the prevailing climate of pessimism and said that in fact a great bull market had already begun, in which the Dow would quintuple. The scene was different twenty years later. In the second half of the 1990s, academic economists, who had been mostly skeptical or silent during two decades of advancing stock prices, began vying among themselves to predict ever-higher targets. Dow 15,000, 36,000, 100,000 and even a million (20 years out, we must deferentially concede) were quoted in the press. The public agreed, buying record amounts of stock month after month, a trend that has continued right through to today. In contrast, with every higher projection and every wave of mass buying, the authors in our stable have grown more bearish, eventually to the point of near apoplexy. As two of them said in Chapter 8 of our 1978 book, the Wave Principle works because investors “can always be counted on to be led to believe that two and two can and do make five.” Today Prechter notes, “This time around, they are convinced that two and two make fifty. By the bottom, they will think that two and two make zero. That will be the time to buy.” If you want to experience the workings of a contrary view, Section One of this book is for you.
Our authors are not always right; they’re just never sheep. Section Two of this book frankly describes a time when being a lone wolf, a voice against the crowd, was unusually counterproductive. The experience did have a silver lining, though, because Prechter’s systematic and introspective review of that time expands our knowledge of market behavior. If you are a student of the Wave Principle, you will find this section especially valuable for the new insights it offers on how the stock market acts during the rarest of events: a Grand Supercycle degree investment mania.
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Contents of View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle |
Section One: Key Essays on the Topping Process of the Great Asset Mania
Leading Up to the Peak of the Average Stock in April 1998
May 1997 Bulls, Bears and Manias
June 1997 Why the Market is in An Extended Fifth Primary Wave, Not An Extended Third
March 1998 Style of the Bear Market
March 1998 A Confluence of Fibonacci Time Spans
April 1998 The Nostradamus of Wall Street
April 1998 Relax?
Leading Up to the Peak in the Dow in January 2000
September 1998 A Major Deflation Is Approaching
September 1998 The Decoupling Arrives
December 1998 A Peek at the Future
February 1999 Game Over
July 1999 You Heard It Here First
Battling Euphoria in the Post-Peak Topping Process
February 2000 Deflation and the New Economy
May 2000 Deflation and Real Estate
May 2000 One Small Step for the Utilities
July 2000 Rationalizing High Stock Valuations
July 2000 A Major Stock Market Low is Still Due in 2003-2004
August 2000 “New Economy” Fever
August 2000 Bust Just Ahead?
October 2000 GE 1974-2000 = phi x 100
Section Two: Retrospective: Errors Made and Knowledge Gained
Calling Too Many Tops
Why I Was Early and What We Have Learned
Postscript
Long Term Forecast Still in Progress
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