The last decade has brought dramatic changes in the way that researchers analyze economic and financial time series. This book synthesizes these recent advances and makes them accessible to first-year graduate students. James Hamilton provides the first adequate text-book treatments of important innovations such as vector autoregressions, generalized method of moments, the economic and statistical consequences of unit roots, time-varying variances, and nonlinear time series models. In addition, he presents basic tools for analyzing dynamic systems (including linear representations, autocovariance generating functions, spectral analysis, and the Kalman filter) in a way that integrates economic theory with the practical difficulties of analyzing and interpreting real-world data. "Time Series Analysis" fills an important need for a textbook that integrates economic theory, econometrics, and new results. The book is intended to provide students and researchers with a self-contained survey of time series analysis. It starts from first principles and should be readily accessible to any beginning graduate student, while it is also intended to serve as a reference book for researchers.
1 Difference Equations
2 Lag Operators
3 Stationary ARMA Processes
4 Forecasting
5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation
6 Spectral Analysis
7 Asymptotic Distribution Theory
8 Linear Regression Models
9 Linear Systems of Simultaneous Equations
10 CovarianceStationary Vector Processes
11 Vector Autoregressions
12 Bayesian Analysis
13 The Kalman Filter
14 Generalized Method of Moments
15 Models of Nonstationary Time Series
16 Processes with Deterministic Time Trends
17 Univariate Processes with Unit Roots
18 Unit Roots in Multivariate Time Series
19 Cointegration
20 FullInformation Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Cointegrated Systems
21 Time Series Models of Heteroskedasticity
22 Modeling Time Series with Changes in Regime
A Mathematical Review
B Statistical Tables
C Answers to Selected Exercises
D Greek Letters and Mathematical Symbols Used in the Text
Author Index
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